There is no contradiction about it! Afghans are resilient fighters and don’t easily give up on a struggle for something to which they are committed. They indeed pride themselves for having ignominiously defeated major world powers – including the British and Soviets. Written history also bears witness to the fact that Afghans were a “hard nut to crack” during ancient invasions of Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great and others. No doubt those empires collapsed not before long – owing to incessant “liberation attacks” from rag-tag, but highly motivated tribal militias. This historical resilience is in fact behind the growing anxiety within American and NATO barracks, and the sticky campaign against the Taliban guerrillas.
Despite these impressive historical successes at the battlefront, Afghans appear to have conceded, or on are on the verge of conceding an ignominious defeat in a war of survival. Long years of trading rockets and bullets against each other, absence of a credible governance system, rise of warlordism and massive displacements of the population have over time, threatened the livelihoods of the majority poor. These events have triggered a humanitarian disaster characterised by desertification, land degradation, food short shortages, drought, lack of social services, and so on. In particular, the rise of warlordism deprived the central government of enabling power and authority; effectively rendering it too impotent to respond to people’s livelihoods needs, or set up safety nets that would guarantee a decent lifestyle for the population.
Of all the ills associated with Afghanistan wars and lack of governance, environmental degradation stands out in prominence. Indeed, the UNEP Post Conflict Environment Assessment predicted “a future without water,” and warned of dire consequences if action was not taken to arrest the escalating situation. Destruction of forests by warlords and destitute community members; overgrazing by pastoral communities, inappropriate farming methods, lack of a national landuse policy, destructive water access/use regimes – are some of the factors that have contributed to the Afghan water disaster.
Estimates from Ministry of Energy and Water (MoEW) indicate nearly 80 percent of the people in rural areas and 70 percent of those living in cities do not have safe drinking water. Both United Nations and Afghan government have warned that some 2.5 million people face an imminent food crisis due to the water shortage, while a further 6.5 million people are seasonally or chronically food insecure.
Although agriculture is the major water consumer in Afghanistan, years of drought coupled with neglect of irrigation infrastructure have triggered an 81 percent decrease in irrigated land. This is a catastrophic development for a country, whose 85 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. In addition to precipitating crop failures, receding water resources have catalysed cultivation of illegal drought-tolerant crops such as opium poppy and hashishi. Latest (2007) UN figures show poppy cultivation having shot up by over 30% compared with the 2006 production levels – in effect making Afghanistan the leading producer in the world.
Acute shortage of water for both drinking and irrigation has become a serious problem in western and southern provinces of Afghanistan, forcing some families to leave their villages and migrate into urban centres or neighbouring countries. The drought is bad news for pastoralists too, especially the transhumant Kuchis. Most of the shallow wells providing water for human and livestock consumption have run dry and some rivers have no water. Nearly 80 percent of pasture and brush land is quickly being replaced by sandy desert in southern and much of the central provinces. An equally catastrophic transformation is taking place in the northern region, away from collapsing banks of Amu Darya River – where a 100-kilometre stretch of land is turning into sandy desert at a rate of 1 meter per year.
Is the battle for water lost in Afghanistan? Have Afghans, renown for their valour and commitment to wining surrendered at the water battlefront? I would say: if not yet, they are well on the verge doing so! Its not too late though. The resilience of Afghans, which saw them defeat British and the Soviets should no doubt see them win yet again, this historic battle for conservation of their water resources. There are opportunities on which they can build. For instance, the country still has appreciable water resources, estimated at an annual 75 billion cubic metres; 57 billion cubic metres of surface and 18 billion cubic metres of ground water. Current off take is estimated at only 20 billion cubic meters, implying there is a surplus of 55 billion cubic meters of water. Much of the shortage impinging on the population is therefore caused by absence of proper water-resources management and development plans rather than scarcity.
The struggle to win the Afghan water war will therefore need to be fought at the policy, technological and institutional reform front. The need for sustainable water access incentives and regulatory instruments is long overdue. There will be need to improve water extraction and utilisation technologies, with particular emphasis on waste reduction and utility enhancement. Farmers will need support to effectively control water runoff, seasonal flooding, deforestation, desertification and to protect wetlands. Sustainable land management options, especially using the watershed approach could be vital for winning the water war. The Bakiga say that “orabire omubicupa taratiina ebyatikira byenkyeka” (a person who has safely walked over broken glasses does not fear broken calabashes or clay pots). Afghans have fought and won so many wars. Will they cowardise now and concede defeat to the receding water war? Hopefully not, because the cost of such a defeat will without doubt exert unprecedented livelihoods implications on the already impoverished population. There is no shortage of options; rather, commitment – at national, sub national, community and household level will guarantee Afghans another sweet, priceless victory.
Denis Mutabazi
August 2007
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