The Government of Uganda is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which it signed on 13th June 1992, and later ratified on 8th September 1993. By so doing, it committed itself – without any duress - to uphold the underlying principle of the convention; namely climate change mitigation. Although it is 15 years since government ratified this convention, the country remains on a slippery slope towards a spiral of climatic catastrophes.
Recent study findings show a sustained climate warming throughout Uganda; the fastest warming regions being the Southwest of the country which has seen a 0.3 degrees centigrade change over the last ten years. Long-term climatic projections reveal a possible 5.5 degrees centigrade change over the next 100 years.
Uganda, like other poor countries of the world is extremely vulnerable to climatic variability because of its heavy reliance on exploitation of natural resources. A landmark report published by GRID in conjunction with UNEP in 2002 elaborated the extent of disruption climate change would impose on agriculture. It warned that total area suitable for growing Robusta coffee would dramatically reduce with a temperature increase of 2 degrees centigrade. Only higher altitude areas would remain suitable, the rest becoming too hot to grow coffee.
The increasing incidents of flooding, soil erosion and landslides are some of the climatic variability indicators. Although these have wrecked havoc on people’s livelihoods across the entire country over the last few months, the worst is yet to come! Some hydrological vulnerability assessments have predicted a 10 - 20% increase in flooding under future climate change scenarios.
Other than flooding, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic variation could result in severe food shortages. It will reduce the productivity of Uganda’s grasslands, which support 41% of the human and 60% of the cattle population. This could lead to massive cattle deaths; appropriations and encroachment on wetter protected areas; enhanced mobility among the pastoral groups – leading to escalation of land conflicts and possibly destitution.
Although nearly 15% of Uganda's total area is water, it’s not equitably distributed. Many regions – especially the North East – are partly semi-arid and face severe water shortages. For such areas, the cyclic and increasingly frequent periods of drought will impose hasher effects on both quantity and quality of water resources.
Unfortunately, the impetus for climate change has been gaining momentum. Deforestation is on the increase; there are unprecedented air pollution levels in the country, wetland encroachment is spiraling unabated; while farmers have stuck with unsustainable, uneconomic, poverty-entrenching and environment-degrading means of production – just to mention a few!
With all this evidence, one wonders why government’s commitment to UNFCCC obligations remains shaky. Why hasn’t government devised and implemented appropriate incentive regimes and other instruments to effectively operationalise climate-related policy frameworks?
Climate change in Uganda is not a hoax; it’s real! Its causes are clearly known; and so are its implications and remedies. The government of Uganda has a choice to (a) boldly tackle the challenges of climate variability now; or (b) remain complacent, intransigent and in self-denial about climate change realities. It should stand warned though, that going for option (b) is tantamount to ignominious betrayal of the people who voted it to office. It will be high order treason against the population!
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