Once upon time, a frog got trapped inside a large clay pot full of water. The frog could have jumped out to safety, but it didn’t think it was necessary. After all life inside the pot wasn’t different from the pond it was used to. It had all the water it needed and it felt safer from its predators. True, its movements were confined, but that wasn’t a big problem at the moment. It had fed prior to being trapped and it could use this opportunity to rest. So comfortable was the frog that it did not realise when some human being lifted the pot onto a firing three stone stove.
Owing to the large volume of water, the change in the water temperature was so gradual that for a moment, the frog did not recognise any changes. It could have catapulted out of the ill-fated pot to safety; at least it still had all the strength to projectile itself over and beyond the pot. As the stove fired relentlessly, the conditions inside the pot became unbearable. Here was a cold-blooded frog now trapped in is lukewarm water, moreover, steam was gathering all over it so breathing was becoming a problem too. You may never have heard about a sweaty frog, but this frog sweated! It consoled itself that whatever is hot gets cold in the end, and thus opted for hope and a little bit of patience.
Halfway to the water’s boiling point, the frog decided it would not contain the situation any longer. It marshalled all the energy it still had and took a sharp vertical dive out of the hot pot. The strength of the dive was enough to get it above the pot, but could not projectile itself horizontally beyond the circumference of the large clay. Weakened by long exposure to high water temperatures, the poor frog came tumbling down, back into the now boiling water. Your guess as to what happened to it thereafter is as good as mine! The poor frog had succumbed to complacency, intransigence and self-denial.
Uganda always joins the rest of the world to cerebrate Environment Day (WED) on every 5th of June. What is not known is whether Ugandans spend such day critically reflecting on environmental trends specifically impacting on the country that was once referred to as “The Pearl of Africa” by British colonialists.
Literature based on research shows a sustained climate warming in Uganda; the fastest warming regions being the Southwest of the country where the rate is 0.3oC over the last decade. Researchers have warned of a possible 5.5oC change in climate over the next 100 years, leading to wide-ranging catastrophic consequences. Uganda, like other poor countries of the world is extremely vulnerable to climatic variability because of its heavy reliance on exploitation of natural resources. Over the last three decades, the country has experienced increasing incidences of climatically related catastrophes. The national economy, which is largely driven by agriculture, has experienced incessant shocks while some local farmers have been driven into destitution. The aggregate economic value of climatic catastrophes is not known, some estimates have put it in excess of $65 million.
A landmark report published by GRID in conjunction with UNEP in 2002 elaborated the extent of disruption that climate change would impose on agriculture. The report indicated that total area suitable for growing Robusta coffee growing in Uganda would dramatically reduce with a temperature increase of 2 centigrade. Only higher altitude areas would remain suitable, the rest becoming too hot to grow coffee. Such change would induce acute implications for farmers’ livelihoods and the national economy as a whole, given the importance of coffee farming in Uganda.
Studies in other countries show similar trends. For instance, a recent study on the effects of global warming on paddy rice yields in the Philippines found that yields declined by ten per cent for each 1°C increase in mean daily minimum (night-time) temperature in the growing season. Rice yields can decline with even moderate warming, because rice is grown under conditions close to maximum temperature tolerances.
The problems of flooding, soil erosion and siltation will become more frequent and more severe with the impending climate change. NEMA estimates that soil erosion accounts for over 80% of the total cost of environmental degradation conservatively estimated at 4% - 12% of the Gross National Product (GNP). Hydrological vulnerability assessments have predicted a 10% - 20% increase in run-off under future climate change scenarios. This poses a significant livelihood threat to communities in regions that are susceptible to flooding. Over the last few decades, problems of flooding from flashy mountain streams on Mt. Elgon and Mt. Rwenzori have been frequently reported. Affected areas included the lower valleys in Kilembe stretching to Kasese airfield by the river Nyamwamba (from the Rwenzori mountains) and flooding of lower Mbale areas by the river Manafwa (from Mt.Elgon). Heavy rains have led to numerous landslides in the mountainous regions to western and eastern Uganda.
In Kabale district (south western Uganda), severe flooding has often setback government efforts to transform farming through the NAADS framework. Other areas experiencing frequent flooding include Kampala City mostly due to changed landuse activities. With the anticipated climatic changes, these places should brace for the worst forms of flooding and landslides yet!
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic variation could result in crop damage, land degradation and severe food shortages in developing countries. Climatic variability and change will reduce food production potential due to lack of soil moisture and escalated abundance and distribution of insects, weeds, and pathogens. Drought will reduce the productivity of Uganda’s grasslands, which support 41% of the human and 60% of the cattle population. This could result into in massive cattle deaths; appropriations and encroachment on wetter protected areas; enlaced mobility among the pastoral groups – leading to escalation of conflicts; sedenterisation of pastoral groups; diversification of livelihood options; and in absence of viable options, destitution. The high yielding dairy cattle found in montane zones like southwestern highlands are known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. With increasing temperatures, diary cattle could succumb to heat stress symptomised by elevated body temperature and respiration rates; decreased feed in-take, lactogenic hormone production, and milk yield; increased weight loss; decrease in reproduction efficiency; reduced calf weight; and a host of other pathological effects. Moreover, tick-borne diseases in the semi-arid areas could become rampant because of higher temperatures. There also a threat that the tsetse fly belt could expand.
Although up to 15% of Uganda's total area is covered by water, its distribution across the country is not even. Many regions – especially the North East – are partly semi-arid and face severe water shortages. For such areas, the cyclic and increasingly frequent periods of drought will continue to impose adverse effect on both the quantity and quality of water resources. Competition for water, possibly culminating into “water wars” could ensure. Some primitive water-induced wars have been fought in Uganda; indeed the marauding Karamajong warriors could be said to water-inspired – but this could slip into more bloody confrontations as the world has already witnessed in the vast Okavango river Basin of southern Africa, over which Botswana, Namibia and Angola just fell short of trading rockets and bullets. In the extreme scenario for Uganda, we could see the Karamojong warriors escalating their water-oriented raids into the wider Busoga; Teso; and who knows – even into Buganda. Diminishing water volumes in river Nile and Lake Victoria could usher Nile basin states and Lake Victoria basin countries into violent confrontation over water access and use rights.
So given all this evidence; why aren’t we seeing a more concerted strategy to tackle climate change in Uganda? Why does government continue to undermine climate management options? Indeed the recent cabinet decision to degazette Mabira forest reserve is clear testimony to lack of government commitment to climate change abatement. Why is deforestation on the increase, and why has wetland encroachment spiraled unabated? Why haven’t farmers adopted sustainable natural resource utilisation measures? Why are they stuck with unsustainable, uneconomic, poverty-entrenching means of production? Why hasn’t government devised and implemented incentive regimes and other instruments to effectively operationalise climate-related policy frameworks? For how long shall we wait for government rhetoric on climate change to materialise into concrete commitments? Where is the leadership from civil society, and what have they done to hold the government accountable to its obligations under the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)?
The questions could be endless but the answer is one: complacency, intransigence and self-denial within government on one hand, and Ugandans as a whole! There is no shortage of innovations for tackling climate change in Uganda. The National Communication to the conference of parties to the UNFCCC dated October 2002, provides elaborate methodological options to mitigate climate change in Uganda.
When government of Uganda willingly signed the UNFCCC on 13th June 1992, and later ratified it on 8th September 1993, it committed itself to fully participate and contribute to attainment of the convention objectives; namely climate change mitigation. Although more than a decade has passed since government ratified this convention, the country remains on a slippery slope towards a spiral of climatic crises and livelihood losses. The government and the people of Uganda have a choice: to face the challenges of climate now; or remain complacent, intransigent and in self-denial – and ultimately suffer the fate of the frog in the clay pot.
Denis Mutabazi
July 2007
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